America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between America and Its Enemies - George Friedman

Divide and Rule - Non Fiction

This book is the best overview of the current situation regarding the US war on terror and the war in Iraq (the two are part of the same.) At some 350 pages or so it can't be hugely in depth, but it packs in a lot of punch, explaining all the major and important trends. The writing is concise, straight to the point and lucid. For me it wasn't boring at all, although at times the seriousness of our situation was more than sobering.

The book attempts to explain, in as unbiased a manner as possible, the strategic reasoning behind both America's and the terrorist's actions, how the war had its origins in the end of the Cold War, and how the two sides' strategies are playing out. It's an excellent primer for anyone who wants to know such things as:

- What is Al-Qaeda, how did it start, and what does it want? (Basically a reinstating of the Abbasid Caliphate. The Afghanistan victory against the Soviets convinced radical Islam that it had the power to do this.)

- What is Al-Qaeda's strategy for obtaining what it wants? (Don't expect any quarter or any scruples, their capabilities are limited so they make up for it with extremism, trying to provoke America into a much larger war with Islam in general. It's hard to deny someone a war when they want to kill you and try extremely hard to do so.)

- What is America's strategy for dealing with Al-Qaeda? (Al-Qaeda is designed to be extremely survivable. Defeating it won't be easy or quick and will require a large amount of sacrifice and patience. Its survivability limits its effectiveness though, ensuring a long campaign.)

- What role does the Iraq campaign play in the struggle? (It's become the equivalent of the Solomons campaign in the Pacific in WWII, or the battle of Stalingrad. It's losing its original strategic significance with both US and Al-Qaeda objectives being left unfulfilled, but it is becoming the campaign where the victor -although not the victory- is determined.)

- What role do the Saudis play? (They have to fight Al-Qaeda since that's where Al-Qaeda's funding comes from. This would mean a civil war in the country. The Government, which is very detached from the highly Wahabi population, is trying to avoid this at all costs dragging the problem along even more. Stagnation and failure in Iraq means the Saudis won't stand up to Al-Qaeda because they will feel Al-Qaeda is more powerful / has stronger will to fight than America.)

- What role does Iran play? They hate USA . They hate Al-Qaeda too and want them destroyed. They are developing nuclear weapons. Worst case scenario? Play Al-Qaeda and America off each other, supporting both, one with weapons and the other with intelligence, and then step into the power vacuum.)

The book is history and analysis rolled into one, starting with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and going to the present day. As such the parts explaining the more distant past are better than the parts explaining the present, since hindsight is 20/20 and there is some significant uncertainty as to the current situation. This is certainly understandable and excusable, if not outright unavoidable. It's also a very realpolitik explanation, which at times can be a bit depressing since there's not much to be said about the human spirit in the realpolitik view. However, one should hope for the best but plan for the worst, and realpolitik certainly forces you to do the latter.

I do however think that being the conservative Republican that Friedman is; they is an element of veiled propaganda attached to this book. I can clearly see the long term vision of the USA;

1. Invent the WMD excuse to invade Iraq, claim that that Al Qaeeda operating from Iraq is a real threat to world peace.

2. Also name Iran as a terrorist state. Remember Iran and Iraq mainlly preach two different forms of Islam; Shia and Sunni. They hate each other and even more when USA goaded the latter.

3. this isn't a fight against terrorism; it's one against the ever growing two -pronged influence of both Sunni and Shiite Islam for the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate.

However the plusses outpoint the minusses and all in all, a very thought provoking read.

Compelling

This book sets out to map the war which the USA is fighting against Al Queada and attempts to set that context with current issues as well as the origins of what Friedman calls 'The Forth World War'.

I have read a lot of works recently about the state of the world, including which often turn into poorly structured rants against the establishment and some by those more supportive of the establishment, which devolve into the same thing from the opposite perspective, so I was pleased to note that this a much different work from the plethora of other books the actions of the Bush presidency.

I found this work to be a most compelling read, giving insightful analysis as to who Al Queada are, their strategic aims and the tactical doctorine. Similarly, it does this from the perspective of the US Government and the author challenges the conventially wisdom (by which I mean the reasons given by the media) as to why Iraq was invaded and the strategic and political manouevring behind the invasion of Afghanistan.

In the book he asserts that the invasion of Afghanistan failed to acheive many of it's stated aims, but then so did the attacks on New York and Washington which prompted it, that the USA did invade Iraq to continue it's war on terror but not for the reasons it gave nor for the reasons most would believe but for far more complex and subtle ones and that in 2002 the USA threatened nuclear war on Pakistan - amongst many other inciteful observations.

Unlike the works of Moore, Chomsky and their detractors, Friedman actually gives real reasons as to why the USA acted as is it did, framed in the context of the events of the time from September 2001 to the very recent past (the book has only been on sale for a few months so is very contemporary) rather than blithely spouting near propoganda for one cause or another.

I felt that he focussed on the way the world works and more to the point he did not afford himself the luxury of ignoring the why of the forign policy actions of it's only superpower which many others have done and thjis made it all the more interesting for me.

I noted that there were no references cited in the book where one could check the validity of what was written but if you consider that George Friedman founded a private intelligence firm in 1996 and is still in business today providing services to major global corporations, his work must be quite accurate or he would be working in a university. Still, some would have been good.

In short, a particularly interesting work for all those interested in geo politics and strategic studies.

Details of the War Story behind Iraq

Al Qaeda’s September 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. initiated a unique war. This dispersed, ideological, religious, fanatical, stateless enemy required the U.S. and its allies to rethink their military and political strategies so they could wage a war in some of the world’s most remote locations. The situation rendered previous military-political models useless. The war against Al Qaeda required an entirely new, global offensive strategy. Author George Friedman asserts difficult-to-uncover - and difficult-to-prove or disprove - information about the international intelligence and military infighting that shaped the Iraq war’s initial stages. His detailed presentation shows his command of this complex global geo-political and military story. He presents a saga much more complex and intertwined than most media reports on Iraq, which is, of course, the advantage of a book. We consider this essential reading for anyone interested in the Middle East and the war against Al Qaeda, including journalists, and those interested in current events, intelligence and military-political history.

interesting reading

This is definitely one of the most interesting books written on America's war on 'terror', It is almost light reading with a good insight and perspective. However, some bits of the analysis is rather naive. The author seems to portray the American empire almost as a victim of circumstance, not quite prepared for the events unfolding around the world rather than a Capitalist ideological state that has its own plans and political ambitions.

My view is one should read it as a contribution to understanding world politics and political scenario today but be very skeptical towards some of the author's analysis.

The Doctrine of Unintended Consequences

Once you begin to read this book, you will find it difficult to put down. Friedman writes clearly and forcefully about the real reasons why America invaded Iraq and the role that the invasion plays in the War on Terror.

Friedman begins his narrative with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, a nightmare development that threatened to give the Soviets control of the Persian Gulf and to lead to America's expulsion from the Middle East. The Carter Administration recognized the strategic threat and began moving quickly to assemble an Islamist guerrilla force to bog down the Soviets in their own Vietnam. The US strategy was intensified by the Reagan Administration and ultimately proved successful, but it had the side effect of convincing the Islamists that they could, if they fought hard enough, topple a superpower. The presence of American troops in Saudi Arabia during the First Gulf War did much to enrage the Islamists, convincing them that their best chance of re-establishing an Islamic caliphate lay in provoking a war with the United States.

Friedman's book explores the Byzantine details of American and Islamist Realpolitik in a fairly balanced way. He argues that the invasion of Iraq was not about WMDs or connections to Al Qaeda or even about oil, but was intended to show the Islamic world (and particularly Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) that the United States meant business and that those who didn't get with the program were going to be dealt with very harshly. The fact that the United States has substantial ground and air forces within easy striking distance of Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia, among others, has no doubt been noticed by the leaders of those countries, dampening their enthusiasm for tolerating Al Qaeda.

The details of this Realpolitik are not pretty. To facilitate the invasion of Afghanistan, the United States obtained Russia's permission to base troops in the Islamic states of the former Soviet Union--in exchange for which, America agreed to mute its criticism of Russia's excesses in Chechnya. After Islamist terrorists attacked the Indian parliament in New Delhi, America secured Pakistan's reluctant cooperation in the War on Terror by making it clear that the United States wouldn't mind very much if India launched a nuclear attack on Pakistan (if America didn't launch one first). The book contains numerous other examples of why America, Iran and other countries behave in ways that are portrayed in the newspapers as peculiar, but are actually quite understandable when taken in context.

Although I think it is fair to say that Friedman is sympathetic with the Bush Administration's approach, he is not an apologist. He documents numerous strategic, tactical and intelligence failures in Iraq, not the least of which was the Administration's failure to appreciate the control that Iran exercised over Iraq's Shi'ite population. He is properly critical of the separation between the American political leadership and the soldiers: "A ruling class that sends the children of others to fight, but not their own, cannot sustain its power for very long" (339). And he concludes that, although the United States has the upper hand in the War on Terror, "the war now hangs in the balance. It is not clear who will win the war. Neither side is defeated. Neither side can give up." This is a balanced and sobering book, a must-read for anyone interested in what is really going on in the War on Terror.